9. Monitoring and effect measurement

9.1 Introduction

Due to the long horizon and the unpredictable nature of (changes to) systems, it is particularly relevant for transition issues to monitor and (intermittently) evaluate the effects of interventions. In this way, knowledge is gained about the possible effects of the manner in which the intervention was taken, which can be directly fed back into the process, in order to support iterative further development and adjustment. Interventions often take place in an uncertain, complex and dynamic environment, where the ultimate effects also depend on other factors and systems, such as breakthroughs and innovations abroad. It is therefore important to gain insight into the changes (direction, speed, and impact) during the intervention. Although these measurements mainly take place during and after an intervention, it is very important to think about monitoring and effect measurements (M&E) especially before the start of the project. For correct monitoring and effect measurement it is important to have a clear and unambiguous picture of the end goals, to select and develop the right indicators for this, and to link the methods to this. This allows you to develop insight into the course of the project and the associated uncertainties. Due to the complex and dynamic nature of transition issues, it must be possible to adjust the adaptive approach, including policy mix and methods, during the process on the basis of progress.

KEMs in this category help to monitor the process, measure the effects and contribution of interventions, and monitor the impact on the system. They provide important information to adjust the intervention during the process. In addition, it is important that the M&E are transparent, and thereby contribute to maintaining and increasing support and involvement. In this chapter, we paint a picture of different KEMs that can be deployed within mission-driven transitions to measure progress and impact. We discuss various goal-oriented and learning KEMs, and identify the main challenges for these methods. The KEMs in this category answer questions such as: how can we measure and analyse the effects of an intervention on the entire system, in the short and long term? How do we also get a picture of the unpredictable and unintended effects and dynamics? How can we analyse the value created by the interventions and changes? Which interventions and instruments work and don’t work, and under what conditions?